Macroeconomía III

El curso de Macroeconomía III esta diseñado para entender algunos aspectos de la macroeconomía Argentina. Se nutre de la teoría macroeconómica y de la experiencia de otras economías emergentes.

Anuncios

• Horario. Martes de 18.15 a 21 en el aula virtual zoom ID: 947 6287 6895

• Fecha de entrega práctico 1. 13 de octubre de 2020. Descargar PDF. (Programa de ayuda en matlab Business Cycle Facts)

• Fecha entrega práctico 2. 9 de noviembre de 2020. Descargar PDF

• Ejercicio final. Fecha de entrega antes del 19 de diciembre de 2020. Caracterizar y simular numéricamente el equilibrio tipo de cambio dual cuando θ > ε . Ver notas en sección 4.2. Es dificil, no se dejen estar.

Evaluación y asistencia

Requisitos de asistencia:

• La nota máxima de los alumnos que asistan a menos de 7 clases será una C.

• La nota máxima de los alumnos que asistan a menos de 5 clases será una D.

Examen final (65%)

Trabajos prácticos y participación en clase (35%)

Clases

1. La cuenta corriente y flujos de capital en una pequeña economía abierta. View Download

2. Ciclos de negocios en economías emergentes. View Download

3. Equilibrio en una economía abierta con bienes no transables. El tipo de cambio real.

   1. Lecture notes View Download

   2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe, , Pegs and Pain, November 2011. Slides

   3. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe, Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment, Journal of Political Economy 124, October 2016, 1466-1514. Slides.

   4. A model with terms of trade shocks. View Download

   5. Ariel Burstein, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, “Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate,” Journal of Political Economy, August 2005. PDF. Slides

4. Equilibrio monetario en una pequeña economía abierta

   1. Introducción. View Download

   2. Equilibrio con controles de capital

      1. Pablo E. Guidotti, Emisión monetaria bajo controles a los movimientos de capital, Academia Nacional de Ciencias Económicas. PDF

      2. Slides sobre tipo de cambio dual (PDF),

      3. Notas preliminares sobre dinámica bajo controles de capitales con una política monetaria que lo hace insostenible. PDF.

   3. Determinación del nivel de precios bajo una regla de tasa de interés, Slides. Notas.

   4. Bassetto, Marco & Phelan, Christopher, 2015. "Speculative runs on interest rate pegs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 99-114. Slides.

   5. David K.Backus and Patrick J. Kehoe, "On the denomination of government debt: A critique of the portfolio balance approach", Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 23, Issue 3, May 1989, Pages 359-376.

      1. Maurice Obstfeld, "The Effectiveness of Foreign-Exchange Intervention: Recent Experience, 1985-1988," in William H. Branson, Jacob A. Frenkel, and Morris Goldstein, editors, International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations, University of Chicago Press, 1990.

5. Deuda soberana

   1. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador, Sovereign Debt, Handbook of International Economics Vol 4. Elsevier, 2014. PDF

   2. Cole Kehoe. Reputational Models of Sovereign debt. PDF (paper). Slides: View Download

   3. Arellano. Computable General Equilibrium Model with Default Risk. PDF (paper) Slides: View Download

   4. Default, Settlement and Signalling: lending Resumption in a Reputational Model of Sovereign Debt. PDF (paper).

6. Speculative Attacks on Sovereign Debt

   1. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. Slides

   2. Cole, Harold L and Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.

   3. Cole, Harold L. and Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.

   4. Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath, "Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises," preliminary October 2012.

   5. Ayres, João & Navarro, Gaston & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2018. "Sovereign default: The role of expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 803-812. Slides

7. Some facts about sovereign debt Slides. View Download

   1. Michael Tomz and Mark L. J. Wright, 2012. "Empirical research on sovereign debt and default," Working Paper Series WP-2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

   2. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, November.

   3. Cristina Arellano and Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187 - 232.

   4. Cruces, Juan J. and Trebesch, Christoph: Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013

8. Planes de estabilización

   1. Thomas J. Sargent, Rational Expectations and Inflation (Third Edition), Princeton University Press, 2013

   2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries,"Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.

   3. Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, & Adam S. Posen, Inflation TargetingLessons from the International Experience, Princeton University Press, 2001.

   4. Jeffrey Sachs, The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilization, NBER Working Paper 2073, 1986

   5. Timothy Kehoe, Juan Pablo Nicolini, Thomas Sargent (eds), The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, Becker Friedman Institute’s Macro Financial Research Initiative, 2018

Libros de texto

• P. Andrés Neumeyer, Economia Monetaria Internacional, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, 2010. Ver Bajar

• Maurice Obstfeld y Kenneth Rogoff, Foundations of International Economics, MIT Press, 1996

• Martín Uribe y Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, 2017

• P. Andrés Neumeyer, Economia Monetaria Internacional, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, 2010. Ver Bajar